How do we keep winning close games?

[Mr Miyagi]

[lazzadesilva]

Practice is only one part of the puzzle, albeit an important one. A huge part is pure luck as in a lucky bounce, a lucky umpiring decision or accurate kicking when it counts under pressure. You could argue that inaccurate kicking under pressure cost Carlscum the game. Staying relatively composed a la Pendles is an essential element as well as taking the right options. Is a combination of stuff that helps win you the really close games. Pies are experts at this process.

[Pies4shaw]

A lot of it is just down to basic skills. Many Collingwood players have been a lot cleaner gathering and using the ball than their opponents at a lot of crucial moments. A winning passage of play from a Daicos to Maynard to Pendlebury to Ginnivan and Elliott is always likely to yield a goal. Hard work gets you a certain way in football, as in the rest of life - but talent is usually the differentiating feature. If Collingwood managed a close win once or twice, you’d say it was a bit lucky but when it happens a dozen times and the outcomes are all one way, luck ceases to be an explanation.

[Skids]

I think our fitness and 'who dares wins' attitude when we're behind are the main factors. The boys just say "let's go for it, we can win this".

[stui magpie]

I read in one article that the belief this team has in themselves is also felt by the opposition and has an impact on their decision making. It's like how inferred pressure forces teams into mistakes

[RudeBoy]

All of the above.

[Deja Vu]

Collingwood is Pi. A mathematical and statistical anomaly. Nothing more, nothing less.

Embrace it I say.

[RudeBoy]

Guts, determination, courage, confidence and team spirit are all unquantifiable. In life, not just football, it's why you should never be too reliant on statistics alone. They only tell part of the story.

Of course you can always find statistics to justify any view you already have. Thus, when I was studying post grad economics, I came across a great quote - "econometrics is a straight line drawn between an unrealistic assumption and a foregone conclusion".

[Jezza]

There's always an element of luck, but experience in close matches certainly helps.

McRae and others have been repetitive in saying that we frequently do scenario based training around this.

[slangman]

We are #1 in the immeasurable statistic:

COMPOSURE!!!

All else is secondary.

[Magpietothemax]

I read in one article that the belief this team has in themselves is also felt by the opposition and has an impact on their decision making. It's like how inferred pressure forces teams into mistakes

Clearly the technical reasons (practice, which leads to composure, etc) are critical, but I think that another element has now been added, simply due to the sheer number of close victories we have achieved.
This fact now saturates the AFL. All players, all coaches are aware of it. If we are close, they are scared. Much of their planning will be focussed on how to handle us when the scores are close. This enters their brain, it becomes a focus point. Make sure Collngwood does not get close. Make sure we get enough a margin to make sure of victory in the last quarter.
So if we stay close enough, this eats away at the opposition's belief. It erodes their competence levels as well, as we saw against Melbourne, and as we saw against Carlton.
The only exception it seems was the sydney game, where we were not able to get inside their minds. As the stats showed, our pressure in this game was significantly down. The home advantage for the Swans was also a big factor. Neverrtheless, it is clear that the Swans game is one we have to analyse to understand how they were able on that occasion to suppress our momentum.

[Magpietothemax]

As Matthew Lloyd points out, there is another reason why we are winning close games, and that is: Scott Pendlebury.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/08/27/ ... wood-star/

[Jezza]

The only exception it seems was the sydney game, where we were not able to get inside their minds. As the stats showed, our pressure in this game was significantly down. The home advantage for the Swans was also a big factor. Neverrtheless, it is clear that the Swans game is one we have to analyse to understand how they were able on that occasion to suppress our momentum.

We threw everything at Sydney in the final quarter, but couldn't score. We had 22 inside 50s in the final quarter so we didn't lose because of a lack of effort. Playing a weaker opponent, we probably come back and win as we have done elsewhere.

Sydney's defensive structures were elite. The benefit of playing on a smaller ground (i.e. SCG) may have also disadvantaged us as well.

[Magpietothemax]

Didn't think we lost due to lack of effort. However, perhaps earlier in the game due to lower pressure ratings (recorded in data) they got too far ahead.
I think this game we played at a lower pressure level than most of our recent games. It was also the game in which illness affected several players, so this may have played a significant role in producing a below par pressure game.
So, if we confront them again, we will need to bring our maximum pressure across the entire game.

[Jezza]

Fair points.

We also lost JDG on top of Adams, so the lack of inside mids hurt us as well.