Trade Winds: Dan Houston

[Haff]

Port losing Huoston but gaining Lukosios and Richards looks roughly even

No, two lesser players dont equal one AA.

Suns losing Lukosios (who they don't really want) and getting Noble (who they do want) is fairly even

I think both players are fairly even but the fact the want and dont want a player isnt relevant or counts for very little.

Pies losing Noble and Richards but gaining Heuston is fairly even, slight win.

Slight? No we're way up on this deal. See point one.

It really shouldn't need much in the way of swapping picks around to make everyone happy.

Per the above, this has Port taking all the risks on an unproven kid from Wangaratta and a role players. Cant see anything less than them getting a first rounder in getting this done.

[Pies4shaw]

Lukosius is scarcely a "role player". He was a number 2 draft pick and has been chased by a number of clubs, including ours. We pulled out in late August because his contract is back-ended - he has two years remaining on it and the estimate is he will be on 1.75 million dollars across those two years. We wanted a salary co-contribution from the Suns but they said no - mostly because Adelaide and Port Adelaide have been in a bidding war for his services. Port is willing to pay more to get Lukosius than to retain Houston, which tells you everything. See: https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/08/30/ ... s-pursuit/

[stui magpie]

^

Exactly, people will pay above market for something they really want and accept less than market for something that's surplus to their needs.

[Pies2016]

^^^
@Haff @stui magpie @Pies4shaw

So the question I have in relation to last few posts is this -
Does the improvement gained from securing Houston, as opposed to playing a W HE, Crisp, Perryman or Sidey at H B, outweigh what we would be paying for him ?? It’s not like we have a shortage of decent footballers who can play HBF, it’s just that they aren’t as good ( based on AA selection )
I still believe footy is the ultimate team game, so as long as we have a good system in defence, I don’t see a huge hole opening up in our defence because we missed out on Houston.
Offer up the Houston trade value for a ready made KPP and you would have my attention but the investment on Houston as an improvement only on the above, isn’t really doing it for me.

[RudeBoy]

I tend to agree with you P2016.

However, if there no ready-made top flight KPDs available, then a Houston type double AA defender would seem our best option.

[piffdog]

^ I think its easy to say "offer up the Houston trade value for a ready made KPP" - but the reality is as best i can think it, there aren't any that are available. Do you have some ideas in mind?

We managed to get in McStay - and there were plenty arguing that he was a spud (although he was a FA). If that's the calibre of KPP we could get right now, I think I would rather take Houston.

I'll say it again, attacking half backs are pretty much the most important players in your team. All this angst about KPP players - how much good did Wietering, Curnow and Mackay do for Carlton this year? And add that to the fact they are probably soaking up $3m a season between them.

[stui magpie]

@Pies2016

I agree with you on the benefit. TBH I'd rather let Noble and Richards go for picks and then either try to trade for a KPF or draft a young one.

What I was suggesting was a way to get Houston without needing to hand over high picks, assuming that he's what we want.

We have plenty of options at HB that may not be as good, but aren't duds.

[Pies2016]

@RudeBoy @piffdog @stui magpie

All fair points and I’m the first to admit, saying it and then going out and doing it are poles apart.
Let’s not forget, that KPP I’m talking about could either be a player acquisition or a quality draftee at pick 13 in a high quality draft ( which would obviously limit our ability to be better in the short term but also potentially address a long time problem for the next 10 years )
Then there’s players like Peter Wright who was disappointing in 2024. Could Essendon really refuse a reasonable pick for Wright when they have no draft capital in this draft. ( I don’t know ) Should we go after Riccardi if Stringer ends up at GWS. Maybe go again on Rory Lobb or Sam Frost, who is now behind two newly acquired key defenders. We will likely never know but what we do know, is the opportunity to explore those options no longer exists once any Houston trade is completed.
I also posted elsewhere about the pitfalls of trading out our F1. The more I think about it, the more I’m against it, so that’s another area of concern for me at least, should the Houston trade have gone ahead. It’s also going to be very difficult to secure any quality plug and play KPP in another twelve months time if we don’t have a first rounder to put up ( free agency aside )

Ultimately, I think the die has already been cast, so we’re all in for 2025 and we’re now just waxing lyrical amongst ourselves. I don’t see any absolute right or wrong in either Houston outcome but I just hope we correctly pick the lesser of two evils on this one.

[qldmagpie67]

A couple factors at play so i won’t rehash the ins and outs
But basically Port will be hard to deal with because we refuse to let them wear the prison bars when they want too.
It will come down to how much to Port want ludicrous from the Suns.
We will end up with #13 & #23 we might have to sweeten the pot with a future 3rd or 4th to Suns
It might take a couple days but my mail is Suns want to deal with us and that will force Ports hand in the end

[qldmagpie67]

The other part to this is if Carlton try to sneak in to get Houston they’ll need to free up cap space so Kennedy will likely be free to look elsewhere

[Presti35]

Just worth noting that Essendon are worried about a bid coming for Kako and therefore their pick 9 could be traded out. This could affect the Houston trade if another side can get that pick.

[Simply_Brutal]

A couple factors at play so i won’t rehash the ins and outs
But basically Port will be hard to deal with because we refuse to let them wear the prison bars when they want too.
It will come down to how much to Port want ludicrous from the Suns.
We will end up with #13 & #23 we might have to sweeten the pot with a future 3rd or 4th to Suns
It might take a couple days but my mail is Suns want to deal with us and that will force Ports hand in the end

I would be shocked if professionals are basing their dealings on the colours on the cloth the players wear.

That’s the stuff supporters bang on with, and presidents posture over - I don’t think anyone of note actually cares, and certainly not enough to influence decision making to that degree.

[Presti35]

Ollie Lord has been linked in this trade again.

Oh Lord, wont you buy me a a Mercedes Benz!

[Newelly]

Ollie Lord has been linked in this trade again.

Oh Lord, wont you buy me a a Mercedes Benz!

Yes that would be good but what future draft picks do we give up for that dream result?

[Take_a_Screamer]

The Dan Houston trade from Carlton point of view
Maybe Carlton to fold the cards?....
https://youtu.be/HEp5Uo4w6N4?si=ZPl51YfXY0tsCtmk