Thinking ahead to 2024 draft...(and beyond)

[Rex]

Condon would be superb, but he’s too good at basketball so we’re not likely to get him.
Last preseason I thought Steene looked better than Cox, but the toe injury (never defined other than ‘unusual’) took ages and he didn’t return to form. If he does he should get games.
Smit will be better than Begg, appears reasonably mobile and likes to be physical. If he can get his forward-craft and kicking going he could be useful. And he’s still young.

[The Black and White Lion]

yeah I would be surprised if we take another junior ruck in the upcoming trade / DFA / draft given we took a young developing ruck in the MSD. Nnames above plus we have plenty of chop out ruck options from Frampton, McStay, Johnson (contracted), Kreuger (1year deal at the death maybe) and Moore if we're really desperate.

Let's see how Cox is holding up this time next year before we retire him off entirely. He might be worth another 1 year deal as insurance and a known quantity at that time. Given his late start in footy and time out with his eyes, I wouldn't be surprised if he played on with the pies or another team until he's 35 or 6.

Back to Kreuger, I'm not saying he's a good ruck but given his physicality, he could be a reasonable ruck option in the modern game where all you need to do is compete. Versatility can get you a late spot on the list.

[Pies2016]

We shouldn’t forget we had already participated in this upcoming draft 6 months ago when we landed both Will Parker and Illoro (?) Smit at the club. These two guys were secured with the view to not have to consider them in this coming draft. Both showed a bit without having had a pre season, so there’s two players who virtually come to the club as 2024 draftees, already with a foot in the door.

[The Black and White Lion]

Sorry digressing from the ruck debate for a minute. I didn’t realise the Top 10draft pick Sam Lalor was a pies fan and modelled his game on JDG

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/10/05/ ... tin-martin

[Charlie Oneeye]

Sorry digressing from the ruck debate for a minute. I didn’t realise the Top 10draft pick Sam Lalor was a pies fan and modelled his game on JDG

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/10/05/ ... tin-martin

Future free agent.

[Big T]

We shouldn’t forget we had already participated in this upcoming draft 6 months ago when we landed both Will Parker and Illoro (?) Smit at the club.

I’ll bite - this has been speculated here and there, but is there any evidence that these two actually would have been first round selections in 2020 draft (Will) and upcoming draft (Smit)?

[Pies2016]

^^^
@Big T

I very much doubt either would have been first rounders this draft but what the club has done, is secured two targets before this draft.
Parker would have been drafted for sure but we avoided missing out on him because we won his signature before the draft. He could have waited for this draft and then he wouldn’t have controlled his destiny, so Parker picking the club of his choice as a Cat A ( or B ) rookie made good sense. What we do know is that Parker was considered a first round selection in his draft year before deciding on cricket. We also know that any young player who manages to get a game in the seniors without having even done a pre season with the club, is a pretty reasonable talent at worst.

Who knows if Smit would have been picked by anyone else in this draft but he would have been picked by Collingwood. We eliminated that risk and took him in an MSD, rather than wait 6 more months and invest a pick in the National draft on him. The club could have easily taken Teakle before him in the MSD with a quick fix ( because Cameron was our ruckman left standing at that point ) but they held their nerve and picked an 18 year old for the future. It meant they could come to the National draft without having to factor in a young ruckman during the draft or trade periods.

[Charlie Oneeye]

if Parker and Smit don't make it, we can guarantee they would have been top 10 picks for us.

[piffdog]

^^ The other benefit of the MSD is that you get an extra 6 months development into these guys. I would expect they have a more fruitful pre-season after being inside the club for 4-5 months than being drafted in November and then rolling into 2km time trials a week later.

I like the look of Parker. Kicking seems to be a key strength.

[Presti35]

REPLACING HOWE:

The Flying Viking; Alix Tauru. Same height as Howe and has a leap on him too. Watching his highlights, he looks like a strong key intercept marking player. He looks tall and strong and he is a great mark. I would absolutely love to get this kid as he looks to be a perfect fit for Collingwood and a great player to come in when Howe leaves the club. He may be a bit raw and need some time to convert into the seniors, but he'd be a sensational pick up.

The problem is... he is projected to go around pick 10.

[LaurieHolden]

^may well be a talent, but you can't replace a 10 year + player a with draftee when the need is immediate.
If we don't already have a replacement for Howe, it'll then need to come via a trade for a 100-game player.

[Pies2016]

The longer this Houston saga goes on, the less I’m concerned about either outcome.
The investment in Houston is major and that’s not to say it isn’t justified but should he not come to Collingwood, then what we keep and use in other areas is also significant.
As it stands, if Houston doesn’t come to the Pies, then we keep our F1 ( and catch up with going to a draft with our first rounder intact )
We also trade out Noble as a stand alone trade and likely land #23. Maybe we could trade that out during trade week for a best 23 ready made KPP or just hit the draft with a decent pick in a quality draft.
I’ve seen a lot of arguments for both sides of the Houston trade but I honestly don’t see either outcome being a bad result for Collingwood.
Do we really stand to lose that much next year if any number of players like WHE, Crisp, Sidey or even Perryman were assigned the half back role in 2025. Obviously Houston is a better HB than any of the above but in the ultimate team game, maybe the most important question is just how much does he make us better as compared to what we would give up ?

[Jamie is only 19]

We dont want our F1 however due to jnr McGuane so one way or another you would think that is going to be traded for something in this years draft . I would pass on Houston however just too much capital required for my liking and there has also been no mention of $$$ invloved ?

[jonmac1954]

We dont want our F1 however due to jnr McGuane so one way or another you would think that is going to be traded for something in this years draft . I would pass on Houston however just too much capital required for my liking and there has also been no mention of $$$ invloved ?

With any complex - 3 way or more - deal the variables are just too complex to even think about setting.

We can be talking money, players, picks - one, two or three of these variables at each point of the triangle.

[Pies2016]

We dont want our F1 however due to jnr McGuane so one way or another you would think that is going to be traded for something in this years draft . I would pass on Houston however just too much capital required for my liking and there has also been no mention of $$$ invloved ?

I agree we won’t necessarily need our F1 with McGuane coming on board in 2025 but there are a number of reasons why we would / should still want to keep it at least until the start of the 2025 trade period.
The earlier McGuanes name is called out, the more we need to find to satisfy the bid. The new F / S rules heavily dilute F /S points, so satisfying that bid now becomes much harder without the help of shuffling around a first rounder to help find those points. Under the new rules, virtually any pick that falls after the end of the second round, is worth very little.
I posted elsewhere and having done the maths, if McGuane was called out at #5, he would cost us approximately THREE mid range second round picks to match the bid. That’s no easy achievement without your first rounder to help out.

There are also a lot of quality players coming out of contract in 2025 ( as opposed to free agency ) and there aren’t many good players that make their way to a new club without having coughed up a first rounder. Yes, we can always trade in futures to compensate ( next year you can trade in two years in advance ) but we can’t keep playing catch up every year on our first round pick.
There’s still a lot to be gained in the medium term by keeping our F1 but gaining Houston obviously isn’t one of them.