Our draft record under Derek Hine et al

[Rex]

With regard our selectors packing up after pick two I thought I’d look at where our list comes from. If we take three of the six SSPs on offer (and I believe we will) the origins of our players are as follows:
National Draft Collingwood picks
9 x first round
6 x second round
2 x third round
2 x fourth round
Plus
11 traded in
12 SSP/MSD/rookie
So, we have only kept 4 out of 42 from picks later than round two. 21 out of 42 have come from elsewhere as mature players (apart from Begg and Steene) who can play immediately.
I know there are late pick diamonds like Swan and Langdon, but they’re impossible to pick (if obviously good they go early).
I don’t know if the above is just a quirk or a specific policy, perhaps necessary because of past over-spending? But hey, we won the Grand Final so I’m happy to go with it!
Compared to 2018 we were pretty much able to cover for all the injuries throughout 2023. Having Frampton and Markov made the difference.
With Allan and possibly DiMattia up to standard, we’ll have 40/42 players capable of playing seniors, leaving only Steene and TJ a year more to mature. That’s real depth.

[LaurieHolden]

^ that's some great analytics Rex, I'll be interested to compare that to our premiership years and compare the mix to rival Clubs ahead of the '24 season.

[Pies2016]

Already been told by Lyon to lift his training standards and professionalism. Will spend the next month doing additional training with the VFL team.
17 other clubs passed. There wouldn’t be too many regrets so far.

[What'sinaname]

As for Mitchell being subbed out and it will remain that way until we find enough younger players who can hold down permanent positions in the seniors.

And there lies a big problem we face. We have the need to drop players who are currently struggling in the seniors but hardly anyone breaking the door down to come in, in the seconds

[What'sinaname]

WarburtonLad,

Our draft / trade strategy has been hit or miss since 2021.. I know we seem to have struck gold trading for some experienced players - Frampton, Hill, Lippa and Titch, but we've missed on Krueger and McStay (due to injuries).
Our draft cohort, outside of Naicos as FS, has been very poor.

We've got 5 games from our entire 2021 National Draft selections and 1 game from the entire 2022 National Draft selection.

[LaurieHolden]

WarburtonLad, Our draft / trade strategy has been hit or miss since 2021.. I know we seem to have struck gold trading for some experienced players - Frampton, Hill, Lippa and Titch, but we've missed on Krueger and McStay (due to injuries).
Our draft cohort, outside of Naicos as FS, has been very poor.
We've got 5 games from our entire 2021 National Draft selections and 1 game from the entire 2022 National Draft selection.

You're always on the front foot telling us how badly we play / drafted / coached etc, but how does this compare?

2021 ~ we were forced to use picks to secure NDaicos. Our next pick was no.45.
The only players to play >20 games post that are WCE pick #57 (15 games), WCE pick #62 (21 games)
There were 2x Father-Son Selections that have had regular games <20, Jase Burgoyne the most at 18.

2022 ~ let's look at our first pick #19 Ed Allan - who was he forcing out Round 1? Is he ready. Of the VFL games you've watched, were does he naturally fit in the seniors.
You then have to go to another WCE pick #58 (25 games) before you get a draftee that has played > 10 games of senior football. Outside of F/S pick #45 Alwyn Davey, he's the only other player to have played more than 10 games between picks 20 & 59 players.

Give us some objectivity / do some research before you do your regular tee-off against the Club.
You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.

[What'sinaname]

^ The drafting issues go back quite a few years and coupled with an intention to trade away Rd 1 picks, we are in a precarious position where have have very thin depth, coupled with an aging side. This isn't going to fix itself in the short term either.

[LaurieHolden]

^Give us some facts. What exactly has gone wrong?

[What'sinaname]

From 2015 - 2019, the only player (not FS) from the National Draft still on the list is IQ.
From 2020 - only McCreery has played a solid amount of games . We traded away Henry.

We seem to pick up players through trading who are doing well, but our inability to get meaningful contributions through the National Draft is a concern.

[shawthing]

We've got 5 games from our entire 2021 National Draft selections and 1 game from the entire 2022 National Draft selection.

I'm surprised Hine is still here to be honest. The last of the holdovers from the old Eddie/Walsh regime. We need to identify young talent in junior leagues now. Starting with 14 and 15 year olds. Remember that Tasmania will get all the high picks in the next few years.

[inxs88]

^
Some great points made by Stui Magpie above and Qld Magpie67. If I can add to that narrative (thankyou for the word Gerard Whately), we are bit like the Lleyton Hewitt/Michael Chang of AFL relying on a labour intensive, body taxing and win by TKO mode of victory. This can be attributed to the simple fact that list management has for a number of years drafted and traded for a ground-ball game vs an aerial game.

It's a philosophy spearheaded by Hine and Co. and one that can be very effective on its day such as GF 2023. However, you just wish sometimes we had our own AFL version of Goran Ivanesvic like Carlton do (Curnow/McKay) to stamp or blunt matches like the Blues did to GWS in a quarter last week without such taxing on the body and mind.

[The Black and White Lion]

Apart from the career ending injuries, honestly this sends a fearful message to CFC draftees. Unless you're a father son or NGA, you're unlikely to have made it to AFL level regularly with any longevity at CFC over the last few years. with the exception of McCreery and Noble, draftees that did make it for a few games have all gone or are biding time below the top level in the VFL. Henry Ginnivan trades Bianco Ruscoe delisted.

like the cats, the pies might be attractive for older players with bigger or mature bodies. Part of the reason McCreery has survived and thrived compared to Macrae, Draper and Murley. Combined with Macrae's boring selection, its partly why we're unlikely to see the VFL crop come through
in 2024 unless there's an injury.

Just look at this week. We ran out of AFL legs in the Anzac Day match. Both teams noticeably dropped off in the last quarter. We brought on Harrison late for Mitchell with a goal effect. But we didn't play Sullivan and he missed out on 2 games in a week.

One of these scenarios that presents the current VFL crop is the potential for AFL veterans to retire. There are 6 or 7 spots in the next 3 years so there's a lot of incentive. But with all the talk about FAs and trades, you can't help but wonder if the VFL crop are on a hiding to nothing.

[Pies4shaw]

A concern of mine is team selection, and the reluctance to stray from the veterans.

Craig has often voiced how he doesn’t believe in “managing” players, which I think is a mistake. Particularly with the older players, resting 1 each week to allow a younger player a run of games would seem to be the smart thing to do. It’s undeniable that Sidey would have benefitted from having this week off, for example.

And this is something Malthouse was great at.

As an example, our 2010 Grand Final team had almost as many changes from the 2010 Round 1 side (7) as the 2024 ANZAC team had from 2022 Round 1 (8).

Unlike the 2010 changes towards youth however, the changes from 2022 to now were either injury/suspension (WHE, Maynard) or trade (Schultz, Hill, Mitchell, Frampton).

2024 Rd 7 vs 2022 Rd 1

IN:
Schultz (Trade)
Hill (Trade)
Mitchell (Trade(
Frampton (Trade)
Maynard (Suspended)
Hoskin-Elliot (Covid)
Cameron
Harrison


OUT:
Adams (Trade)
Henry (Trade)
Grundy (Trade)
Ginnivan (Trade)
Wilson (Delisted)
T Brown (Delisted)
Bianco (Delisted)
Madgen (Delisted)

Your comparison with 2010 is spiurious. The players brought into that team were, for the most part, demanding opportunities - Beams, Dawes, Blair, Nathan Brown, Reid and Macaffer all picked themselves on form and Goldsack played in the second Grand Final because Davis didn't play in the first.

Medhurst would certainly have been first choice - but he, like Presti, was injured (and for about half the season). The older players who didn't reach the Grand Final were Presti and Medders (injured), Fraser (physically shot from playing as an under-size first ruck for years and already replaced by, first, Wood and then Brown and Jolly), Davis (who would have been first choice, if he hadn't played poorly in the first Grand Final), Lockyer and O'Bree.

Beams took O'Bree's spot - Cheesy started the season as backup but played a few games to plug gaps in the absences of, eg, Beams (round 1), Johnson (round 3) and Wellingham (rounds 7 and 8). Blair eventually took Lockyer's spot. There were really only 2 "changes to youth" in 2010 and, let's be fair, we never really thought of Lockyer or O'Bree as more than hard-working, serviceable players (to put it in perspective, Pendlebury and Sidebottom have polled Brownlow votes between them over 150 times, Lockyer and O'Bree between them just 26 times). By the middle of 2010, there was little doubt that Beams and Blair were better options (especially given that Ball had also arrived as a dominant defensive midfielder).

The problem we have, now, is that we know our older players were good enough to win the flag last season (cf the 73 point flogging we received in the 2009 Prelim) - and the two most obvious candidates for replacement have won two flags (and one of them is both our greatest player of the last 65 years and still one of our best 3 mids). Meanwhile, our potential replacements are, at best, fringe players, at the moment. There is still time for some of them to demand a call-up this year - but getting dumped by Coburg hardly makes you want to look at the VFL for replacements for your epoch-defining players.

So, eg, obviously Sidebottom should not have played off the 5-day break but there seems (at the moment) to be no-one else who can do that gut-running all day, up and down the wings. Likewise, WHE obviously needed a rest. Cox was also dreadful, for the most part, and looks like we could do with an upgrade. It's difficult and we plainly need some of the younger players to bridge the gap but, for the most part, they don't look (yet) like AFL players. Harrison looked good when he came on - and like he might add to the team, going forward, so hopefully he can hold his place and show improvement at senior level.

Again, look at the 2010 first-game impressions made by the "new guard" that year - Dawes, 15 disposals and 2 goals on Anzac Day, Beams 27 disposals, a goal and 2 goal assists in round 2, Blair 16 disposals in round 14 (replacing Sidey, initially, as it happens), Macaffer 17 disposals in round 3 (against St Kilda). Initially, Reid came in as a forced replacement for Presti, was dropped and then came back when Presti got injured again. Nathan Brown was initially picked on I/C as a replacement for Leigh Brown (who was dropped - it's important to appreciate, looking back, that Leigh Brown spent 6 weeks in the VFL after round 4, during much of which Cameron Wood took his place - the "Leigh Brown role" wasn't really created until the back half of the 2010 season). For the most part, the "newbies" made an immediate positive impression. Not so much our current bunch (yet).

[Pies4shaw]

^ In any event, the more appropriate comparison is between the team that won in 2010 and the team that played off the following year. The only changes in the 2011 GF were that Krak came in for Macaffer (hardly a move to "youth"), Davis came in for Nathan Brown (who missed the entire 2011 season) and Fasolo came in for Beams. Davis would have come in for someone else, I suppose - but he played virtually the whole of 2010, anyway.

[Charlie Oneeye]

I like our strategy of moving players a year early rather than a year later. This ruthless approach imo was a major contributor to our Grand Final win last year.

We created opportunities for players like Markov, Frampton, Hill, and Mitchell.
GF heroics aside, how many close games did we win to get there?.

We need to be ruthless. Older listed FL players need to be consistently clearly pressuring our top 22. There are lots of replacements out there.

We need to be ruthless, younger prospects must obviously be able to play at VFL standard, but also show exceptional upside to earn a development game.

Anyway, I guess I'm about not giving easy games, and delisting bread roll eaters lol