A Fly in the Ointment

[shawthing]

I am beginning to appreciate our flag last year more and more. The more we seem to struggle this year, the more incredible that win last year really seems to be. It was the result of two years of coaching genius by Fly.

First he united the club (with help from Jeff Browne and Graham Wright) and put our culture on a sound foundation. Second he took the list he inherited (and no one could claim it has ever been the strongest list in the AFL, even at our peak last year) and made that motley crew believe in themselves. He won coach of the year in his first year, and would have won back-to-back if his mate Adam Kingsley didn't do so well with the Giants last year. We all agree Fly is a class act! The way he has handled himself under enormous pressure this year only adds to his legend.

But is Fly's initial success now his own worst enemy?

The fans all expected that we would carry on as usual this year. We forgot that the landscape is always changing and we are the hunted now. Teams have worked us out - Ross Lyon admitted that. The problem is that Fly has overachieved with this group by a mile in his first two years.

He rejuvenated the veterans (the over 30s) and took a bunch of "good ordinary footballers" and made them a premiership team with a sprinkling of superstars (N. Daicos and De Goey, but I can't think of any more A graders now). It might well go down as one of the greatest coaching performances in the history of footy. So Fly's unbelievable success has set us up to fail bigtime this year.

But that's okay. That's okay. We won number 16 last year against the odds.

The fact is (and I'm sure the Collingwood football department knows this better than we do) we were never going to be able to sustain the manic pressure we exerted last year. As all statisticians know, our form has reverted to the mean. And with our current list that means we are a "good ordinary side". Any team that has a "good ordinary", serviceable forward in Mihochek winning its goalkicking the past four years tells us clearly we are not a team of champions.

So win or lose tonight, this might be the season we need to have to take Collingwood to the next level. Find out what our kids have, and start thinking of recruiting the next premiership team (and that means getting more athletic talls and key position forwards).

If we fail this year we only need to look at the 2023 Premiership Cup. That will always be ours, and it might well have been the least expected flag in Collingwood's long history.

[Mr Miyagi]

It’s exacerbated by the fact that the last two years have been heartstopper edge of your seat excitement and come from behind/one kick wins. We were always going to have a crash, it’s unsustainable.

[What'sinaname]

^ To the OP, don't think we expected to carry on as usual from last year, just expected to be a little bit competitive. Would have thought a top 8 position would have been reasonable.

We're playing like a bottom 4 team.

[Mr Miyagi]

^100%. And teams we only beat by a kick are playing like top 4.

[shawthing]

The whole competition has improved. North and West Coast. In fact you might be able to say every team has improved this year except three: Brisbane, Collingwood and Hawthorn (and they've got Ginnivan who hasn't set the world on fire). I'd say if we make it into the eight that will be a remarkable achievement. So far these teams look certainties for the eight: GWS, Sydney, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Brisbane (because they will win enough games at the Gabba alone). Then there's GC Suns, St Kilda, Freo, Essendon, Bulldogs and us fighting for that final spot.

So no, we won't be going back to back. But as I said, that's okay. Celebrate what we achieved and look forward to the next Collingwood premiership squad to emerge in coming years.

[lazzadesilva]

^100%. And teams we only beat by a kick are playing like top 4.

And in the Zilch derby, I pick Collingwood to continue our Zero tolerance

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

2022 and 2023 were always 1 or 2 ahead of planned.

2024 in the wheel house only to win a flag 2023 hence a year too soon.

2024 the next phase.

2025 we launch again and back in the wheel house again.

ala richmond 2017 (ours 2023) 2018(our 2024) 2019 (ours 2025)

you get the gist.

kind of a reset before our next flag tilt lets say.

[Charlie Oneeye]

Through the season, we did win our fair share of close games playing entertaining football.

7,1 and 4 points in the finals.
3 for 3 is 100%. The odds I think should be close to 50%.

Without the same form, our system isn't good enough to stop the opposition scoring, we need to be on song for half a chance.

And then bring our superpower to control the seconds.

%$^.. hurry up Rocca boys. !!

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Kind of agree but we still have talent mostly up tapped but this in the vfl now days.

Time to blend them through into the afl this season.

Love it when we blend in the kids and they are coming through together and kind of have same matches played as well and some time it all clicks and we rock again.

I think some time this season we will start the process again.

Must say 22 and 23 were the enteraining years.

Time to solidify this era or moments more for the long term.

No sure on 2024.

2025 we go again.

[Culprit]

Race Horses tend to fire 4th up from a spell. I am hoping these are set for the knackery.

[Born to Pie]

Race Horses tend to fire 4th up from a spell. I am hoping these are set for the knackery.

Yes sprinters can come out first up and go bang, second up even better. Stayers well they need a few runs before they hit their straps, you do like to see them running on towards the end of races though.

As we all know, or should know, it's a marathon not a sprint

[What'sinaname]

^ we better start winning otherwise we may as well melt down the team for glue