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woodys_world69 wrote:i was surprised ash was elevated to senior list actually.
yes he can mark and kick goals but i thought the coaches put some off the ball KPI's for him to meet in the VFL before he would get another senior spot.
Plus that now infamous footage of him in the VFL show boating and then getting tackled with the ball didnt look great for his future.
You speak of the ability to mark and kick goals as if you're discussing peripheral football skills. That's two-thirds of the game. You can't ask for things we don't ask of any other rookie early in their career (despite his age, it is still early in his career). The lad not only has better-than-rookie-prospect ability, he has better than mid-draft ability.
As a mature-age recruit he won't come perfect, but he is a supreme talent who can take superb grabs, kick big goals that turn games, and really trouble the opposition. Add a big pre-season and him maturing into the game and he could be an absolute gun. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but it's far more guaranteed than a long-shot draft pick because we've seen it with our own eyes in real time on the big stage. That's proof you rarely get from a rookie.
Johnson's proven ability shouldn't be underrated, especially given his potential upside and draft/recruitment cost.
If the base line forecasts occur, that would result in a 31 goal or a 16% increase on the 2023 H&A season.
Given we'll be likely playing the 2023 top 8 twice in season 2024, I reckon that's a minimum we'll need to improve by offensively to ensure we stay in the top 4 and keep our percentage in the Premiership range of > 120%.
Further to earlier, with McStay out leaves a deficit of 35 goals on what I was forecasting. That leaves us on breakeven on a percentage of around 120%, which is what I think of offence needs to produce to maintain a top 4 position. I just can't see Johnson providing the physical and mental discipline required over a H&A season to replace McStay and deliver anything near that. FWIW, I think Frampton is going to provide a more structured forward 50 target, and with that I'd have him closer to goal and Checkers providing the more mobile focal point across the half forward line.
I'll also watch with interest over the pre-season if Howe is trialled again in the forward line, as a break glass in emergency if the Johnson experiment doesn't yield fruit.
"The Club's not Jock, Ted and Gerry" (& Eddie)
2023 AFL Premiers
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I notice and realise that there will never be overflowing love for Krueger on Nick’s but I will continue to add him to the discussions about an adequate replacement for McStay. The eternal knock on him is his constant ability to sustain long term injuries that end up stuffing up his season, and probably his career if he gets yet another serious injury. I totally get that. However taking his current injury free status into account, I would expect him to be a great contender for CHF.
I term the current Collingwood attack based strategy “Unceasing Waves” like on a stormy and windy day with rough seas. A Perfect Storm
Kreuger is not the messiah but nor was McStay.
If Kruger stays fit, he will provide a good point of difference. In some ways he is the polar opposite to Johnson. He is not polished and plays a kamikaze style.
In my view the primary role of our forwards will be to bring the ball to ground as often as possible. We don't have the best tall forwards in the game but we arguably have the best small forwards in the AFL. The most opportunities they get the better....
"You must be a parking ticket, cuz you got fine written all over you" Glen Quagmire
Modern football is played on the ground far more than the air hence players such as:
* McCreery
* Schultz
* Hill
* Elliott
become vital in our quest to go back to back. Also, don't underestimate both Harrison and Richards next year. Richards has copped a bad rap here on Nick's but he has genuine talent and upside. If he can have a sound Pre-season and get some momentum early, he may surprise.
Pebbles Rocks wrote:Kreuger is not the messiah but nor was McStay.
If Kruger stays fit, he will provide a good point of difference. In some ways he is the polar opposite to Johnson. He is not polished and plays a kamikaze style.
In my view the primary role of our forwards will be to bring the ball to ground as often as possible. We don't have the best tall forwards in the game but we arguably have the best small forwards in the AFL. The most opportunities they get the better....
Given all our players have roles, it appeared to me that McStay's was, "when the ball comes in, compete, don't get out-marked, and if you can clunk a few, that's great."
Pretty much what what Frampton did in the Grand Final (if only he had held that one mark and kicked a goal...)
If Frampton or Kreuger can play that role, we'll be good.
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This is true.. While of course it is much more powerful to have a second tall forward who is a genuine contested mark, (as McStay is) Frampton played a major role for three quarters in nullifying Brisbane's key defender - so Frampton does have some wherewithall in playing a forward defensive role. If he can improve his skills a little over the preseason, he might be able to play such a role. Likewise Kreuger might be able to train up for such a role, and the two can share it throughout the season. We must also recall that Ash Johnson has the potential to be a genuine tall contested mark who could divert pressure from Mihocek, provided that he improves his defensive pressure.
Likewise Reef McInnes is another who, while not a genuine tall forward, could divert defensive attention from Checkers. He was showing signs in 2023 of being on the threshold, so he too has the chance to seize the opportunity
We have four boys waiting in the wings who, if they want it enough, can establish a role for themselves next year.
I think our forward line structure, as others have noted, is not the traditional set up with a power forward, but is much more based on speed of ball movement, speed of small forwards, defensive pressure and increasingly (with Schulz) it will also be based on skill at ground level.
Our coaches are extraordinarily creative, and I am looking forward to see what they will come up with.
WhyPhilWhy? wrote:Given all our players have roles, it appeared to me that McStay's was, "when the ball comes in, compete, don't get out-marked, and if you can clunk a few, that's great."
Pretty much what what Frampton did in the Grand Final (if only he had held that one mark and kicked a goal...)
..
Actually two easy marks Frampton dropped. A pity. If he'd taken both chances, woulda been a good game for him.
And not true that he didn't get out-marked. In Q4, the Harris Andrews mark(s) coulda cost a flag.
My mail has it that Ash Johnson is super fit and the club has high hopes for him in 2024. Also, apparently Alex Condon is unlikely to make it to the NBL, making it very likely he'll be playing for Collingwood by August.
