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[BenBronx]

Fox footy has an article up on their website where they predict exactly when a team can and can’t win a premiership. Do you agree with their estimations?

Adelaide Premiership window: 2024-27
Brisbane Premiership window: 2024-26
Carlton Premiership window: 2024-26
COLLINGWOOD PREMIERSHIP WINDOW: 2024-25
Essendon Premiership window: 2025-28
Fremantle Premiership window: 2025-28
Geelong Premiership window: 2024, but then who knows?
Gold Coast Premiership window: 2025-28
GWS Giants Premiership window: 2024-27
Hawthorn Premiership window: 2026-29
Melbourne Premiership window: 2024-25
North Melbourne Premiership window: 2026-29
Port Adelaide Premiership window: 2024-27
Richmond Premiership window: 2027-30
St Kilda Premiership window: 2025-27
Sydney Premiership window: 2024-28
West Coast Premiership window: 2027-30
Western Bulldogs Premiership window: 2024-26

This is their opinion on Collingwood's premiership window entering the 2024 season. (All list age/games played stats via Draftguru.)...

COLLINGWOOD
Oldest and 2nd most experienced list entering 2024 - Won Grand Final (18-5)
The one caveat we’ll put on the Pies is that recent history has shown a premier can decline out of nowhere; Geelong in 2023 and Richmond in 2021 the most obvious examples. Their premiership core was built on a few different eras all coming together - the last of the 2010 crew (Pendlebury and Sidebottom, plus Howe who fits in that age bracket), the prime-agers including plenty from 2018 (Elliott, Adams, Crisp, Moore, De Goey, plus recruits like Mitchell and McStay), and then a sprinkling of the next-gen (the Daicoses, Quaynor and Hill). The former group has a year or two left, and will be tricky to replace; it’s not hard to imagine Pendlebury’s exit being as painful as Joel Selwood’s was for the Cats. The other two groups will hold the Magpies in good stead for a few years yet but we wouldn’t be shocked to see a dip before another rise. It’d just help if they could start nailing their draft picks, because since the incredible 2014 class, they’ve had a relatively poor strike rate outside of guys they were always going to get because they were tied to the club (like the Daicoses and Quaynor).
Premiership window: 2024-25

The full article can be seen here - https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-ne ... 6da032c9fe

Would love to hear opinions on where you'd rate each teams Premiership windows, especially ours.

[Kingsofclutch]

We had a very set cycle before Fly, 2 year window followed by 7 years declining then rebuilding.

2002 GF
2003 GF

2010 GF
2011 GF

2018 GF
2019 PF

That's all out the window (pardon the pun) now with so many elite Vets hanging on and medical, recruiting and coaching stepped up to another level.

2022 PF
2023 GF


Did we recruit differently in the era of concessions and academies to gain an edge?

[Charlie Oneeye]

I agree with that assesment..BUT...

Sidey , Crisp, Pendles, Howe,Mitchell... all played an elite role in the GF. Elliot not so much, but he wont be there in a couple of years either.
WHE is excellent role player.

By 2026, Hill, Daicos(2) , Degoey 30, Moore 29, Maynard 29,IQ 25 will be the next upper tier.
McCreery,McCrae, McInnes will hopefully be the next upcoming core support.

I can keep naming names, all teams have them , but the recruitment of Schultz shows we are already looking to support the top tier by then.

Im sure there is an uncontracted player or two coming our way, we will have the salary cap.

And for my 'BUT'..

Bugger me.. I remember in the early 80's, we had just witnessed some glory Hawthorn years.
As soon as a couple of guns retired, %$^, along came new one's... and their Premierships kept coming.

They had a baby hospital, and just plucked the best ones who not only deserved a game, but were capable of playing in a top 4 side.

Of course, all Empires come to an end, and eventually the draft killed them(I think).

I can see Collingwood being early Hawthorn.... we are building something special.

To add.. the draft still is a leveller, but Ive seen the list changes lately, and we are quick at culling, we are focused on top 4 quality only. An improvement over past years.

[RudeBoy]

I can't fault the assessment.

The big deciding factor imo, will be our ability/inability to draft and develop 2 more out and out star midfielders, to replace Pendles, Sidey and Mitchell. If someone like Allan can step up and be our Botempelli, and someone like McCreery can become a genuine midfielder, then our Premiership window could be extended for another 3 years.

[Kingsofclutch]

Or we pinch Smith and Holmes.

[Charlie Oneeye]

I can't fault the assessment.

The big deciding factor imo, will be our ability/inability to draft and develop 2 more out and out star midfielders, to replace Pendles, Sidey and Mitchell. If someone like Allan can step up and be our Botempelli, and someone like McCreery can become a genuine midfielder, then our Premiership window could be extended for another 3 years.

Yea, I could be wrong, but I have this rule of thumb where I think we need to find 2 new players every year who can sustain a successful career. Every now and then, one of them is an A grader.

[K]

...
This is their opinion...

The one caveat we’ll put on the Pies is that recent history has shown a premier can decline out of nowhere; Geelong in 2023 and Richmond in 2021 the most obvious examples. ...

Decline out of nowhere?

Dunno 'bout that... If Geebung had failed in 2022 (e.g. losing a PF), would 2023 really surprise anyone? (The players' '22 Mad Monday old folks home gag didn't age well... Well, I still reckon it's a good one, but not sure Geebung fans would.)

And the Tiggers '17-'20 are way overrated. Once they lost their no-injury advantage (almost zero injuries the entire '17 and '18 seasons) and their Dusty advantage (still have 'im but he's not the same), they were never gonna be competing. And then their coach showed his true colours... dumping them for "new toys" (his words!!).

[Kingsofclutch]

We'll have to trade for one or two of serious quality, you can't replace Pendlebury by bringing the 24th best player into the team and expect to stay in the window. High hopes for Allan and co but we'll need a ripper mid or two if we don't want to waste the Daicos boys on a rebuild.