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Piesnchess wrote:The BIG difference is , too other GF losses, the close ones, is this- THIS TEAM ARE THE CLOSE GAME SPECIALISTS, WE NEVER HAVE HAD THAT BEFORE, IN ANY FINALS OR GRAND FINALS. WE WILL WIN A CLOSE GF, LIKE 2018 NOW, BEYOND DOUBT. THAT is why id be pretty damn confident on GF day.
Don't want to be a downer, but we came up short twice (less than a goal) in the Qualifying and Prelim Final last year despite all our close H&A wins.
True, BUT the umpires totally reamed us in the QF, we all know that, and we lost by a point up at that chardonnay SCG, puny oval, could have gone either way, really.
Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb.
Piesnchess wrote:
True, BUT the umpires totally reamed us in the QF, we all know that, and we lost by a point up at that chardonnay SCG, puny oval, could have gone either way, really.
That's always going to happen. We have to compete and beat the umpires as well. No point crying over spilt milk. We failed last year because we weren't ready.
shawthing wrote:We are very good at losing GFs. We've lost more than our rivals have played in. But thank you very much (NOT) for daring to jinx us this year.
Face the GF when we get there. And then it is 50/50 whether we win it. That's always been the way.
Can we win? Sure. Will we win? That's in the lap of the gods. Don't. tempt. fate.
Over the period we have lost to many Grand Finals to many teams of:
Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, West Coast
npalm wrote:No Laz, that's not how probability works. Past events are irrelevant. If I toss 10 heads in a row, the probability of throwing a head again is still 50%.
Unfortunate really, cos if probability did work the way we'd like, then the Pies would win 8 of the next 10 Grand Finals we contest.
I've always said probability is a crock of the proverbial. That's why gambling companies amass such fortunes. The fact is an event either happens or it does not. And every event is a discrete entity from previous events. For example. The chance of my flight from Melbourne to Sydney crashing is very very low (that's the probability on the basis of all the flights to Sydney that haven't crashed). But suppose I'm on the one that does eventually crash. Then my chance of dying on that flight is exactly 100%. Historical probability is bunk. I'm 100% dead or alive depending on whether the plane crashes or not. And that has absolutely nothing to do with what's happened before or after it.
It's the same principle with winning grand finals. Our probability of winning the next one is TOTALLY irrelevant to whatever goes before. Our winning percentage in each grand final is EXACTLY 100% or 0%. Its the flip of a coin. Literally. Heads or tails. What's your pick? Because the coin toss at the start of the game might have as much bearing on our flag hopes as anything else.
Probability is part of that mantra about "damned lies and statistics." It is a total fabrication of each and every event. Something either happens or it doesn't. A coin comes up either heads or tails.
Just on this key full forward stuff, people forget, in 1990 we did not have a real full forward in the ablett, dunstall, lockett, hall mold, but we still won the Premiership, thats why Im quite happy with Checkers, and what he brings to the table, if we can make the Big Dance.
Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb.
Piesnchess wrote:Just on this key full forward stuff, people forget, in 1990 we did not have a real full forward in the ablett, dunstall, lockett, hall mold, but we still won the Premiership, thats why Im quite happy with Checkers, and what he brings to the table, if we can make the Big Dance.
I'd take a "not real" full forward if he'd kick 97 goals for the season. Also played alongside BT who wasn't bad.
K wrote:^ Yeah, but P. Daicos and G. Brown are special cases. There's no comfort there for 2023.
IWTF ?? we have both Daicos boys, who can boot long goals, Nick is on fire, we have Jamie, Bobby, Ginni, Checkers, maybe McStay or Krueger, up forward, thats a better forward set up than 1990, I reckon.
Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb.
^^^ if we comparing forward lines, then you can't include the Daicos boys as they play in the midfield and backline.
The 1990s forward line wins for me. Purely because of Daicos senior and Gavin Brown. They are two of the best players to have ever played for the club.
I really like Elliot, Mihocek etc, but they are not in the same class as those two.
npalm wrote:^^^ if we comparing forward lines, then you can't include the Daicos boys as they play in the midfield and backline.
The 1990s forward line wins for me. Purely because of Daicos senior and Gavin Brown. They are two of the best players to have ever played for the club.
I really like Elliot, Mihocek etc, but they are not in the same class as those two.
Different players granted, but I reckon NIck is nearly equal to his Dad, and Josh is an extremely good team player, he has improved out of sight last two seasons. Darcy Moore is a better backman than any in the 1990 team, IMHO, hes now elite, as Rance was with Richmond. Vital defender.
Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb.
shawthing wrote:We are very good at losing GFs. We've lost more than our rivals have played in. ...
Face the GF when we get there. And then it is 50/50 whether we win it. That's always been the way.
Can we win? Sure. Will we win? That's in the lap of the gods. Don't. tempt. fate.
Piesnchess wrote:
True, BUT the umpires totally reamed us in the QF, we all know that, and we lost by a point up at that chardonnay SCG, puny oval, could have gone either way, really.
That's always going to happen. We have to compete and beat the umpires as well. No point crying over spilt milk. We failed last year because we weren't ready.
We have always had to compete against blind hatred of anyone not a Collingwood supporter including umpires and the VFL/AFL. And we always will - read any newspaper or watch any media outlet - it's always the same story, hate Collingwood.
But pride in the jumper drives us forward against those overwhelming odds, defying the hatred and leads us to make GF's we simply don't have the personnel to win.
THAT is the key factor in our too many GF failures.
MagpieWhisperer35 wrote:I’m done watching Pies in GF live. 2018 broke me. 2002 was bad enough.
Oh well it’s not as exciting watching replay but I’ll die of a heart attack so that’s how it is.
Go Pies
Agreed, same here, I cannot watch a GF live, with us in it, the accumulated pain over decades has seared my Magpies soul. 1970, 2018, we kicked first five goals, and still lost both, add Breens point in 66, Harmes boundary line cheating, the disasters of 2002 2011, to name but a few. I will go for a long long walk around Mt Evelyn, bush tracks, get back to car, post match, and put radio on, get the result. If a victory, go nuts and dash home to watch full replay several times, with a few too many whiskies. Thats how I roll form now on.
Piesnchess by the way i love chess and Bobby Fischer how did you cope watching Gf 2023?
I started watching until my son had a relapse of schizophrenia and had a bad psychotic episode and couldn't watch regardless only watching app for score
I have watched replay five times still laughing and crying everywhere i go
