So, do we have great forward depth now?

[Pies2016]

Pressure is just about effort not skill. Does anyone know what goes into measuring what is a good or bad pressure forward?

Is it 1%s, tackles or some magic algorithm?

It is very complex and it can also be broken down into implied vs actual.
All I know is that the determination of the success ( or not ) of the pressure act starts with a player being identified as second to the ball and then he is measured by the outcome of his efforts when he is in the immediate vicinity.
In Weideman case, that unwanted statistic is saying that if he doesn’t win the ball in the first place, he’s virtually guaranteed to offer little resistance from that moment onwards.
Weideman is rated #1, Brown with his chronic knee is rated #2 and Fritsch is rated # 9. The “ experts “ are claiming this is why the Dees have now become east to score against. The ball is leaving their forward line to easily anytime the ball is in dispute.

[think better]

These two are forming a good chemistry - they compliment each other well.

a few times the cameras caught them having a chuckle together and Checkers seems to be looking out for Johnson.

[inxs88]

Brody is having his best year. 31 goals 8 from 12 matches with impact up the ground. Having Johnson and Cox floating in as the 2nd and 3rd talls is working well. Would be great to see Johnno put 4 quarters together soon.

[Jezza]

Brody is having his best year. 31 goals 8 from 12 matches with impact up the ground. Having Johnson and Cox floating in as the 2nd and 3rd talls is working well. Would be great to see Johnno put 4 quarters together soon.

Checkers' goals per game average is the best it's been in his career.

2018 = 1.81 goals per game (29 goals in 16 games)
2019 = 1.50 goals per game (36 goals in 24 games)
2020 = 1.39 goals per game (25 goals in 18 games)
2021 = 1.62 goals per game (34 goals in 21 games)
2022 = 1.78 goals per game (41 goals in 23 games)
2023 = 2.58 goals per game (31 goals in 12 games)

[Pies2016]

^

Poses the question, is he a better player in 2023 or is he the same player who is simply the beneficiary of a better team up the ground and around him.
Never underestimate the positive impact of a dominant midfield on your forwards

[Jezza]

^ Hard to measure, but his kicking for goal has significantly improved.

2018 = 29.18 (61.7%)
2019 = 36.26 (58.1%)
2020 = 25.9 (73.5%)
2021 = 34.34 (50.0%)
2022 = 41.25 (62.1%)
2023 = 31.8 (79.5%)

[Pies2016]

^^^
Absolutely. That’s a great conversion and I’m assuming ultimately the aim will be to keep both Checkers and Johnson closer to goals and have a strong outlet player in front of them. That could be McStay or Cox or whoever but if we’re looking to move the ball quickly, ideally we wouldn’t want Checkers or Johnson taking the ball up around the centre to often.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Same kind of working combo as that of Moore and Murphy in the backline as well.

[blackmissionary]

^ Hard to measure, but his kicking for goal has significantly improved.

2018 = 29.18 (61.7%)
2019 = 36.26 (58.1%)
2020 = 25.9 (73.5%)
2021 = 34.34 (50.0%)
2022 = 41.25 (62.1%)
2023 = 31.8 (79.5%)

It'd be interesting to see how far out he's been generally taking his shot from over his career. Have a hunch that he's getting better looks this season than he has for a while.

[LaurieHolden]

Roles, Goals and 'Rocca Mode'

As we work towards the cusp of the 2024 season, the lull after our last match usually comes with a reflective 'what might have been?'.
But not this year! While we're currently in the football equivalent of sailings doldrums, we get to relive season 2023 and the feats of Sat 30-Sep-2023 at will.

But as with every pre-season, we'll be found lying awake like on Christmas Eve, wondering what might be under the tree / Carringbush. What might Santa-Fly deliver? Are we still good enough? What have Santa-Flys coaching elves be putting together in the workshop?

All going well, I'll make the assumption the output of the defensive side of our game holds and maintains its status quo.
But I long to get back to crushing sides like we did in the 2011 H&A season.
The 2011 season for and against percentage of 167.66% we achieved finishing on top of the ladder bettered our 2010 for and against percentage of 141.86%
In the AFL era, we have crossed a 130% threshold 3 times, 2011, 2010 and 1990.

Over the entire CFC season history, we've never won a flag without finishing the season with a percentage higher than 120%.
11 of our flags have been won when the Club finished with a percentage of >130%.

Over 2023 we slotted 346 goals / 202 behinds for 58.38% accuracy, while averaging 25.3 shots on goal per game. Adjusting for rushed behinds see that fall to 52.5%, still the highest in the league. As Julie McCreery stressed "when in front of goals, make them count!"

The ad nauseum discussion about finding the equivalent of boxings great white hope in a full forward will continue on, nothing surer.
But we have to work with what we have, and this means multiple avenues to goal.
With that I'm asking the question, which forwards have the capability of materially improving their scoring output?

Perhaps the obvious is getting > 15-20 games combined from Mihocek and McStay. They played 13 games together in 2023.
Are we better served by a mix as opposed to one focal point? To me this seems a better option. We might lose one to injury, but we're unlikely to lose both and then disrupt our forward line materially.
And Johnson, the mercurial one. He goes into his 4th pre-season, what will he deliver? If he can better develop his leading patterns, might he be the one to secure a spot and exceed expectations?
Might Norm Hill become the next Charlie Cameron and kick 40+?

I've had a bit of a go at what I'm hoping will unfold over the 2024 season ~

H&A 2023 goals -player- H&A 2024 goals forecast ~
• 44 Brodie Mihocek >35
• 16 Dan McStay >35
• 21 Ash Johnson >20
• 0 Nathan Kreuger >10

• 3 Harvey Harrison >10
• 18 Beau McCreery >20
• 3 Reef McInnes >10
• 25 Norm Hill >35
• 38 Jamie Elliott >25
• 33 Lachie Schultz >30
(allows for injuries / players coming in to replace or earn a spot)

Group totals ~
• 2023 H&A goals kicked > 198
• 2024 H&A goals forecast > 230

If the base line forecasts occur, that would result in a 31 goal or a 16% increase on the 2023 H&A season.
Given we'll be likely playing the 2023 top 8 twice in season 2024, I reckon that's a minimum we'll need to improve by offensively to ensure we stay in the top 4 and keep our percentage in the Premiership range of > 120%.

So if we approach the 2024 season with more 'Rocca mode' than 'Presti mode', how does the above line up with Nicksters own assessment / outlook for our forward line for the 2024 season?

[Kingsofclutch]

McStay is threatening to be that goal square gorilla we need, Mihocek will need to be replaced in the next year or two and hopefully that's one of Johnson or the lego built Krueger, wouldn't mind another 200cm that can kick goals and pinch hits in the ruck, come on down Archer Reid.

[Charlie Oneeye]

McStay has done enough without doing enough. Could have had 4 goals once or twice.

He has won his contests in a fashion, looking like a full forward. When he doesn't get it, I think he leads well, and runs to the right spots.
He knows how to work in the forward line, Jamie Elliott like.

If He/the side starts working together for a full season, we may finally have a real spearhead. What a bonus that would be for the Premiership side.

[woodys_world69]

i was surprised ash was elevated to senior list actually.
yes he can mark and kick goals but i thought the coaches put some off the ball KPI's for him to meet in the VFL before he would get another senior spot.

Plus that now infamous footage of him in the VFL show boating and then getting tackled with the ball didnt look great for his future.

[K]

But could Collingwood keep AJ on the rookie list?

Normally 3 seasons max, right? Ash came in the 2021 Mid-Season Rookie Draft... so dunno what the limit is then.

[Piesnchess]

IF we get Wyngard, hes not a bad forward is he , also ? Great for even more depth.