Thinking ahead to 2024 draft...(and beyond)

[Jen2310]

Any insight into our Academy player Doug Kerr? 192cm, heard he's a good user of the ball, nice kick at goal, may have been somewhat stifled for opportunity in the midfield due to playing with Oakleigh Chargers (Finn O'Sullivan and Jagga Smith).

Had a good underage year, and played a couple good games in between school footy (which he had some really great eye catching games) but then, did his ACL in May.

[Jen2310]

My thinking is that the Collingwood teams at the start of 2025 will line up a bit like this;
AFL Round 1;
B: Maynard, Howe, Quaynor
HB: Houston, Moore, Perryman
C: Lipinski, DeGoey, J.Daicos
HF: Hill, Mihocek, McCreery
F:Elliot, McStay, Schultz
R:Cameron, Crisp, N.Daicos
Inter: Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Hoskin-Elliot, Cox

If we don't play opening round.
Houston wont play round 1. He's still suspended.
But if we do play opening round, he'll be available for round 1.

[SLORT]

Had a good underage year, and played a couple good games in between school footy (which he had some really great eye catching games) but then, did his ACL in May.

Damn, thanks Jen.

[Jen2310]

Damn, thanks Jen.

I think he'll play on our vfl side (and oakleigh as an overager) next year as we track his progress. He's at the 4 month mark -- Had to wait 6 weeks to have surgery, because not only did he do his ACL, but the MCL as well. Did something nasty to that knee. So he had surgery end of June. He should be starting running by now.

[Arch@M32]

^ I got 2 Gault jumpers just handed to me cos he didnt want them. I'm sure you find this information riveting.

Happy to take them of your hands...

[Big T]

I don’t see any historical advantage in trading up to picks 19-36 range. Looking at drafts since 2016 we have taken 11 players in the 19-36 range and 17 greater than 36 range. I would argue we have yet to have one success in the 19-36 range (Sier C. brown McClarty Kelly Poulter McMahon all failures while the jury is out on Macrae McInnes Ryan Allan Demattia and I could argue none look like 200 gamers) while we have had 4 genuine successes at above 36 (J Daicos McCreery Murphy Harrison) plus several solid citizens / good trade value (T Phillips Richards ) and some promise coming through (Jiath). I’d rather roll the dice with our later picks in a strong draft and not sell anything especially future picks for moving into the 20s or early 30s where we genuinely stink at finding players.

[Big T]

And on the genuine first round picks - it’s easy to see why they are so critical - for a club that is quite poor at national drafts compared to our success in trades and rookie / mid seasons - we have had for the past decade N Daicos O Henry Quaynor Stevenson De Goey Moore - it’s crucial when we have a chance for a top 10 to grab it. Hence the Houston deal in hindsight is probably a very good decision and I was probably wrong on my negativity - odds of us getting pick 13 correct was 50/50 at best based on history and if we can get the points for MCGuane next year and if he is first round quality, then it’s a sound decision

[The Black and White Lion]

How does the first round draft pick rules work again, we have to use 2 first round picks in every 4 years right without AFL permission.

Extraordinary that Demattia was a first round pick in 2023 due to 6 or 7 matches bids prior to our first pick. Allan was a first rounder in 2022 also.

So in theory we didn’t need our 2024 first round or 2025 first round pick to comply with the rule.

If we continue the established player trade route at the end of 2025 trade period however we’re going to have to be careful with trading out the 2026 and 2027 future firsts.

Perhaps one caveat on that catch could be we match a first round bid for Tom McGuane in 2025 and that counts as our first round pick meaning we can trade a future first.

[Pies2016]

How does the first round draft pick rules work again, we have to use 2 first round picks in every 4 years right without AFL permission.

Extraordinary that Demattia was a first round pick in 2023 due to 6 or 7 matches bids prior to our first pick. Allan was a first rounder in 2022 also.

So in theory we didn’t need our 2024 first round or 2025 first round pick to comply with the rule.

If we continue the established player trade route at the end of 2025 trade period however we’re going to have to be careful with trading out the 2026 and 2027 future firsts.

Perhaps one caveat on that catch could be we match a first round bid for Tom McGuane in 2025 and that counts as our first round pick meaning we can trade a future first.

We’re fine. It’s called the “ two in four “ rule.
A club is required to use a first round selection in at least two of the last four drafts, so it’s a rolling time line. Both Allan and Dimattia were also considered first round selections after they pushed out by compensation and NGA / F S bids.
Nick Daicos is also regarded as a first round selection under these rules, even though his selection was made up of later picks. The same would apply to McGuane if he was to be selected in the first round.
The only club who has sailed VERY close to the wind with this rule, has been Port, who received a get out of jail free card on the back of trading in J H F with their early draft picks, after J H F was the number # 1 pick the year before. Nothing was mentioned of this during the trade period but Port was always going to have to buy into this draft anyway because they didn’t start with a first rounder during this trade period. Obviously they have now cleared the slate because they have #13 in this draft.

[Magpie Russ]

Collingwood still believes there will be “some quality players” available to it with the late selections, which should come forward a few spots after bids are matched on father-son and Academy players higher up the order.
Leppitsch has said that key position players will be a focus for the Magpies, particularly those who can light it up the forward half.
Could a player like 199cm Northern Knights key forward Tom Sims, 197cm South Australian swingman Charlie Nicholls or 199cm Greater Western Victorian Rebels ruck-forward Floyd Burmeister slip through to Collingwood’s first selection?
Another Northern Knights player — 196cm key forward Gabriel Stumpf — could be another option if the Magpies want to bolster that area of the ground.

43 Tom Sims, Forward/Ruck, Height 199cm
An exciting prospect, this athletic tall is a great size to be a modern-day key forward and can provide back-up in the ruck.

44 Charlie Nicholls, Forward/Defender, Height 197cm
A marking tall who can run all day, Nicholls showed that he can get it done at both ends of the ground this year.

45 Floyd Burmeister, Ruck/Forward, Height 199cm
A former competitive high jumper, Burmeister does things that few 199cm prospects can.

60 Gabriel Stumpf, Forward, Height 196cm
A unique talent, Stumpf showcased his rare traits as a key forward at the national draft combine with the fifth best 20m sprint of all-time.

[SLORT]

Lookin at the highlights, Sims and Nicholls both look pretty good. Burmeister is the epitome of gangly, looks pretty awkward at times as though it's taking an extra bit of thinking time for his body to do what he's telling it to. Some of his hitouts he jumps so high he hits it on the way down. Needless to say they all need some meat on those bones.

Pity no Stumpf highlights package...I know he's listed as a forward but maybe with that pace and that aerial capacity he could be a good defender?

[Pies2016]

^^^
I’ve done some draft night hypothesising and I CURRENTLY have us with a net gain of 7 spots as a MINIMUM for each of our later picks ( 11 out + 4 spots back in as additional picks after the bid = 7 ) Obviously all these numbers are just a best guess likelihood, especially with pick swaps continuing right up until the final night of the draft. Those numbers also exclude any action on the Camporeale twins because they still haven’t been nominated by Carlton and the likely pick swap exchanges Essendon will still action in order to maximise the early NGA bid for Kako.

Hopefully, all that means our climb up the draft order will be 7 spots as a very minimum on the ( second ) night. We currently hold 52, 55 and 58, so based on the above, we will hit the draft at #45, #48 and #51 at worst.
I don’t really see us improving our draft position before the draft but there is always a bit of a chance we could swap picks on either night. Carlton’s # 38 could be a possibility IF they do pull the trigger on both twins on the second night.

[SLORT]

Just wondering, with the F/S Academy rules, do the points get matched and picks wiped out first from the earliest or the last picks? Would be good to know exactly what our draft hand actually looks like, based on predicted outcomes (Ashcroft 2nd, Lombard 10th, Kako 13th, Marshall 22nd, Camporeale ?, any more?).

And hopefully the Aint's continue with their vendetta on the current system by selecting first Lombard, then Kako, and finally Marshall...assuming no one else has done dibbs before them.

[Pies2016]

Just wondering, with the F/S Academy rules, do the points get matched and picks wiped out first from the earliest or the last picks? Would be good to know exactly what our draft hand actually looks like, based on predicted outcomes (Ashcroft 2nd, Lombard 10th, Kako 13th, Marshall 22nd, Camporeale ?, any more?).

And hopefully the Aint's continue with their vendetta on the current system by selecting first Lombard, then Kako, and finally Marshall...assuming no one else has done dibbs before them.

The points accumulation from any matching bid, starts with the earliest next picks available. The Lions have already set themselves up well with Ashcroft and Marshall but the Bombers will possibly look to burn # 28 elsewhere ( maybe a future ) rather than be absorbed in any Kako bid. Suns could do anything with their # 39 before the night.
In the Saints case ( and I understand the “ poetic justice “ sentiment in bringing a bid forward) clubs don’t go calling out F / S or NGA nominations in order to make other clubs pay overs. Hypothetically, the Saints could call out Marshall for fun at # 8 on the night and the Lions just say “ that’s too much for him, we won’t match the bid and he’s now yours at pick # 8 “. If I remember rightly, that scenario happened with Josh Dunkley, where the Dogs called his name out and Swans didn’t think he was worth where the bid came in, so they didn’t match it. The rest is history.

[Charlie Oneeye]

There are some nice prospects there, Sims reminds me of Jack Riewoldt for some reason.